“The problem is that extraordinary performance comes only from correct non-consensus forecasts, but non-consensus forecasts are hard to make, hard to make correctly and hard to act on.” Howard Marks. Humans are terrible forecasters for many reasons explained by behavioral economics, not the least of which is that we often see false patterns and ascribe false meaning to them. Having great pattern recognition skill is critical in venture capital and one pattern that you see is that really great entrepreneurs often break some rule(s) that you thought were unbreakable. History only rhymes and never repeats precisely.
To read the original article: A dozen things I’ve learned about venture capital (in 999 words) - GeekWire
